Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Damir Dzumhur — Umag Final
Merida Aguilar D.
Daniel Merida Aguilar faces Damir Dzumhur in the Umag final on clay. Daniel Merida Aguilar holds the paper edge — ranked #82, a roughly 110-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Around the match
Physical condition is a concern after demanding run to final with little recovery time.
Dzumhur D.Last Word On Sports ↗
Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 04:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Merida Aguilar D. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Daniel Merida Aguilar 73 games in 14 days, Damir Dzumhur 145.
- Last match: Damir Dzumhur dropped the opening set before beating Alex Molcan 3–6 6–4 6–3.
- Last match: Daniel Merida Aguilar dropped just 6 games past Roman Andres Burruchaga.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (41 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMerida Aguilar D.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 73 games (7d) · Dzumhur D.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 102 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.