Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo — Gstaad Semi-final
Collignon R.
Raphael Collignon faces Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the Gstaad semi-final on clay. Raphael Collignon is the paper favourite — ranked #42, a roughly 50-point clay Elo advantage — but Juan Manuel Cerundolo has won their only previous meeting, though none on clay.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Collignon R. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Raphael Collignon brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 35), Juan Manuel Cerundolo the stronger return game (Return Rating 38).
- Last match: Juan Manuel Cerundolo dropped the opening set before beating Casper Ruud 3–6 7–5 6–2.
- Last match: Raphael Collignon edged Valentin Vacherot in three tight sets (7–6 4–6 7–5).
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadCollignon R.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 58 games (7d) · Cerundolo J.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 59 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Eastbourne | R32 | grass | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 4-6 6-4 6-7 |