Alexander Shevchenko vs Stefanos Tsitsipas — Gstaad Semi-final
Shevchenko A.
Alexander Shevchenko faces Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Gstaad semi-final on clay. Stefanos Tsitsipas is the paper favourite — ranked #85, a roughly 220-point clay Elo advantage — but Alexander Shevchenko has won their only previous meeting, though none on clay. Alexander Shevchenko brings the better recent clay form (5 of 6).
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Tsitsipas S. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Alexander Shevchenko comes in with 3 days of rest and 28 games in 14d, vs Stefanos Tsitsipas's 1 and 56.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Stefanos Tsitsipas has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 90 vs 61).
- Head-to-head: Alexander Shevchenko leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on clay. Last met at United Cup 2024.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadShevchenko A.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d) · Tsitsipas S.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 56 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-27 | United Cup | RR | hard | Alexander Shevchenko | 6-4 7-6 |