Mayar Sherif vs Oleksandra Oliynykova — Iasi Semi-final
Sherif M.
Mayar Sherif faces Oleksandra Oliynykova in the Iasi semi-final on clay. Oleksandra Oliynykova is the paper favourite — ranked #52, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 70-point clay Elo advantage — but Mayar Sherif arrives in form, winning all 8 of their last clay matches to Oleksandra Oliynykova's 5.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Oliynykova O. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Mayar Sherif 151 games in 14 days, Oleksandra Oliynykova 73.
- Under pressure: Oleksandra Oliynykova has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 78 vs Mayar Sherif's 8).
- Last match: Oleksandra Oliynykova edged Clara Burel in two tight sets (6–4 7–5).
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadSherif M.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 112 games (7d) · Oliynykova O.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Cluj-Napoca | R32 | hard | Oleksandra Oliynykova | 6-7 6-4 6-4 |