Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo — Bastad Semi-final
RUS1
CHI3
Rublev A.
Andrey Rublev faces Alejandro Tabilo in the Bastad semi-final on clay. Andrey Rublev holds the paper edge — ranked #16, a roughly 90-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1, though this is their first meeting on clay.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Rublev A. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Andrey Rublev has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 85 vs 29).
- Serve & return: Alejandro Tabilo leads on Serve Rating (58), Andrey Rublev on Return Rating (50).
- Last match: Andrey Rublev dropped just 3 games past Sebastian Baez.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 39). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Miami Masters | R64 | hard | Alejandro Tabilo | 6-7 6-2 6-4 |
| 2024-10-21 | Basel | R16 | hard | Andrey Rublev | 7-6 6-1 |