Clara Tauson vs Sara Bejlek — Athens Quarter-final

Athens · WTA · Quarter-final

DEN

Clara Tauson

#30WTA

1802ELO

1775Hard ELO

$911kYTD

$5.3MCAREER

23 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLLWWLLLL

—

Sets

Friday, 17 July 2026 · 21:00

hard

CZE

Sara Bejlek

#42WTA

1776ELO

1749Hard ELO

$682kYTD

$1.7MCAREER

20 yrs · 163 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

WWLWLLLWLL

Tauson C.

Bejlek S.

Clara Tauson faces Sara Bejlek in the Athens quarter-final on hard. Clara Tauson is the paper favourite — ranked #30, a roughly 30-point hard Elo advantage — but Sara Bejlek has won their only previous meeting.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:21 UTC

Tauson C.57%

Bejlek S.43%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Sara Bejlek dropped just 4 games past Lilli Tagger.
Last match: Clara Tauson handed Miriana Tona a second-set bagel in a 6–4 6–0 win.
Head-to-head: Sara Bejlek leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Abu Dhabi 2026.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Tauson C.

5.4

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Bejlek S.

6.8

Slight advantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

5.3+27 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.7Hard Elo 1749

5.0Overall Elo 1802

ELO gap

5.0Overall Elo 1776

3.0Trails 0–1 on hard

H2H

7.0Leads 1–0 on hard

6.46 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

7.78 of last 10 on hard

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

7.0Plays well in heat

Heat performance

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Tauson C.Stable

Bejlek S.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

13 vs 14 matches

Statistics

This season

Tauson C.Bejlek S.

1st serve in·Even

63%

64%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

72%

63%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

40%

47%

Service points won·Even

60%

57%

Return points won·Slight edge

42%

50%

Break points saved·Even

57%

55%

Aces / match·Dominant

7.1

1.1

Double faults / match·Slight edge

3.1

2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (13 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Tauson C.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Bejlek S.

Bejlek S.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Tauson C.

Serve advantage — Bejlek S.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Tauson C.Bejlek S.

Clutch Rating·Slight edge

Break points saved·Clear edge

Break points won·Even

Deciding sets·Dominant

Tiebreaks·Clear edge

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Serve & return on hard

Tauson C.Bejlek S.

Serve

—

Return

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Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Freshness

Recent load

Tauson C.Bejlek S.

Freshness·Slight edge

Tauson C.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d) · Bejlek S.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

31°CClear

Wind 7 km/hHumidity 30%

Head to head

0–1

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2026-02-01	Abu Dhabi	SF	hard	Sara Bejlek	7-5 3-6 7-5