UMPIRY
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Win Probability

Thursday, 16 July 2026
10 rated matches · 4 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchPanna Udvardy vs Katarzyna Kawa53% · 47%Toss-up · Iasi · R16 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteCasper Ruud vs Jaime Faria78% · 22%Clear favourite · Gstaad · R16 · Analyze match →
Rated that day10 matches104 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%
Yesterday · 15 Jul5 of 10 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 6.1 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days15 Jul 2026Pozoblanco · R16Tiago Pereira beat Yi Zhou 5-7 7-6(5) 6-3Pre-match: Tiago Pereira 10%Surprise score90

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.