Damir Dzumhur vs Matteo Arnaldi — Umag Quarter-final

Umag · ATP · Quarter-final
Damir Dzumhur
BIH
Damir Dzumhur
#104ATP
1638ELO
1594Clay ELO
34 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 16 July 2026 ·
clay
GORAN IVANISEVIC STADIUM STUDENAC ARENA · 2nd on
Matteo Arnaldi
ITA4
Matteo Arnaldi
#36ATP
1830ELO
1830Clay ELO
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWLLWW
Dzumhur D.
7-6 6-7 7-6
Arnaldi M.
Dzumhur D.
7764772
Arnaldi M.
6577641

Damir Dzumhur defeated Matteo Arnaldi in the Umag quarterfinals, winning 7-6, 6-7, 7-6. The match saw Dzumhur hit 2 aces and 1 double fault, while Arnaldi had 6 aces and 5 double faults. Both players had a 73% first-serve win percentage and converted 30% and 27% of break points respectively, with each securing 3 service breaks.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Around the match

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above. Lines marked “Umpiry summary” are written by Umpiry from the linked article, not quoted from it.

Key context

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-04-23Madrid MastersR32clayMatteo Arnaldi6-3 6-4

Statistics

This season
Dzumhur D.Arnaldi M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
61%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
49%
Service points won·Even
58%
61%
Return points won·Even
39%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.5
5.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.7
3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Dzumhur D.Arnaldi M.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
66
54
Break points saved·Dominant
70
95
Break points won·Dominant
76
22
Deciding sets·Clear edge
75
58
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
82
97

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Dzumhur D.22%
Arnaldi M.78%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Arnaldi M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Dzumhur D.
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Arnaldi M.
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.0Clay Elo 1594
Surface ELO
8.0+236 Clay Elo edge
2.6Overall Elo 1638
ELO gap
7.4Overall Elo 1830
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
5.65 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
9.29 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Dzumhur D.Arnaldi M.
Freshness·Even
94
91

Dzumhur D.: 9 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Arnaldi M.: 9 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
31°CClear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 54%

Draw