Jesper De Jong vs Sebastian Baez — Bastad Round of 16
De Jong J.
Jesper De Jong faces Sebastian Baez in the Bastad round of 16 on clay. Sebastian Baez holds the paper edge — ranked #56, defending last year's quarter-final, a roughly 20-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 20:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Jesper De Jong 107 games in 14 days, Sebastian Baez 0.
- Serve & return: Jesper De Jong leads on Serve Rating (21), Sebastian Baez on Return Rating (60).
- Last match: Sebastian Baez dropped the opening set before beating Max Dahlin 4–6 6–4 6–1.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on clay
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadDe Jong J.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d) · Baez S.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.