UMPIRY
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Win Probability

Wednesday, 15 July 2026
10 rated matches · 4 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchPablo Carreno Busta vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli52% · 48%Toss-up · Umag · R16 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteFlavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga75% · 25%Clear favourite · Umag · R16 · Analyze match →
Rated that day10 matches104 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%
Yesterday · 14 Jul7 of 11 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 6.3 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days14 Jul 2026Rome · R32Aurora Zantedeschi beat Fiona Ferro 6-4 2-6 6-3Pre-match: Aurora Zantedeschi 11%Surprise score89

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.