Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres BurruchagaUmag Round of 16

Umag · ATP · Round of 16
#9ATP
1896ELO
1862Clay ELO
$3.2MYTD
$8.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLLWW
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 15 July 2026 ·
clay
GORAN IVANISEVIC STADIUM STUDENAC ARENA · 2nd on
#67ATP
1711ELO
1694Clay ELO
$458kYTD
$1.3MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLLLWLLW
Cobolli F.
2-6 4-6
Burruchaga R.
Cobolli F.
240
Burruchaga R.
662

Roman Andres Burruchaga advanced to the quarterfinals of the Umag tournament with a 6-2, 6-4 victory over Flavio Cobolli in the Round of 16. Burruchaga converted 57% of his break points and won 76% of his first-serve points, compared to 50% and 64% for Cobolli. Burruchaga secured four service breaks to Cobolli's one, and hit three aces to Cobolli's two, while both players committed three and two double faults, respectively.

Around the match

  • One of the best matches of the year

    Burruchaga R.ATP Tour

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
55%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
50%
Service points won·Even
64%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
36%
43%
Break points saved·Even
64%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.0
2.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.0
3.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
74
67
Break points saved·Dominant
95
68
Break points won·Dominant
38
73
Deciding sets·Clear edge
99
84
Tiebreaks·Dominant
94
65

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Cobolli F.75%
Burruchaga R.25%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Cobolli F. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.1+168 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.9Clay Elo 1694
7.3Overall Elo 1896
ELO gap
2.7Overall Elo 1711
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.97 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.85 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
3.0Grass → Clay
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
78
65

Cobolli F.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Burruchaga R.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 60 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
28°COvercast
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 65%

Draw