Andrey Rublev vs Andrea Pellegrino — Bastad Round of 16
Rublev A.
Andrey Rublev faces Andrea Pellegrino in the Bastad round of 16 on clay. Andrey Rublev holds the paper edge — ranked #16, a roughly 220-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 20:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Rublev A. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Andrey Rublev 0 games in 14 days, Andrea Pellegrino 47.
- Under pressure: Andrey Rublev has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 88 vs Andrea Pellegrino's 55).
- Last match: Andrea Pellegrino dropped just 5 games past Nicolai Budkov Kjaer.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on clay
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadRublev A.: 15 days rest · Pellegrino A.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 47 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.