Andrey Rublev vs Sebastian Baez — Bastad Quarter-final

Bastad · ATP · Quarter-final

RUS

Andrey Rublev

#16ATP

1902ELO

1872Clay ELO

$1.6MYTD

$34MCAREER

28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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—

Sets

Friday, 17 July 2026 · 14:00

clay

ARG

Sebastian Baez

#56ATP

1759ELO

1718Clay ELO

$924kYTD

$6.9MCAREER

25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLWWWWWWW

Rublev A.

Baez S.

Andrey Rublev faces Sebastian Baez in the Bastad quarter-final on clay. They have met once, Sebastian Baez leading 1–0. Sebastian Baez brings the better recent clay form (8 of 8).

Key context

Freshness: Andrey Rublev comes in with 17 days of rest and 0 games in 14d, vs Sebastian Baez's 2 and 27.
Serve & return: Andrey Rublev brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 46), Sebastian Baez the stronger return game (Return Rating 60).
Last match: Sebastian Baez dropped just 6 games past Jesper De Jong.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Rublev A.

6.1

Even matchUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Baez S.

5.9

Even matchUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

6.9+155 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.1Clay Elo 1718

6.8Overall Elo 1902

ELO gap

3.2Overall Elo 1759

5.0First meeting on clay

H2H

5.0First meeting on clay

7.17 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

10.010 of last 10 on clay

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

7.0Reached the quarters here last year

5.0Opponent hot: 9 of last 10

Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Rublev A.Stable

Baez S.Rising

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

24 vs 34 matches

Statistics

This season

Rublev A.Baez S.

1st serve in·Slight edge

63%

72%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

75%

65%

2nd serve points won·Even

51%

53%

Service points won·Even

66%

62%

Return points won·Even

38%

41%

Break points saved·Even

67%

63%

Aces / match·Dominant

6.3

1.9

Double faults / match·Slight edge

2.4

1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Rublev A.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Baez S.

Baez S.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Rublev A.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Rublev A.Baez S.

Clutch Rating·Even

Break points saved·Even

100

Break points won·Clear edge

Deciding sets·Slight edge

Tiebreaks·Slight edge

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Serve & return on clay

Rublev A.Baez S.

Serve

Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Freshness

Recent load

Rublev A.Baez S.

Freshness·Clear edge

100

Rublev A.: 17 days rest · Baez S.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Slowlow bounce, long rallies

SlowFast

Head to head

0–1

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2022-07-11	Bastad	SF	clay	Sebastian Baez	6-2 6-4