Sebastian Baez vs Andrey Rublev — Bastad Semi-final

Bastad · ATP · Semi-final
Sebastian Baez
ARG8
Sebastian Baez
#56ATP
1759ELO
1718Clay ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 11 July 2022
clay
Andrey Rublev
RUS1
Andrey Rublev
#16ATP
1902ELO
1872Clay ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWWW
Baez S.
6-2 6-4
Rublev A.
Baez S.
662
Rublev A.
240

Sebastian Baez defeated Andrey Rublev 6-2 6-4 in the Bastad semi-final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Andrey Rublev came in ranked #16, but Sebastian Baez had been the form player, winning 8 of their last 8 on clay.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Baez S.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Rublev A.

Rublev A.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Baez S.

Serve advantage — Rublev A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Baez S.Rublev A.
7
Serve
13
43
Return
64

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Baez S.Rublev A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
72%
61%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
64%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
60%
67%
Return points won·Even
40%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.0
7.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 199). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Baez S.Rublev A.
Clutch Rating·Even
87
88
Break points saved·Even
96
100
Break points won·Clear edge
86
72
Deciding sets·Slight edge
88
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
83
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Baez S.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Rublev A.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
3.2Clay Elo 1718
Surface ELO
6.8+155 Clay Elo edge
3.2Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
6.8Overall Elo 1902
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
6.7
Surface form
6.7
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.6
Minutes 14d
4.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
9.0
3.0
Surface transition
3.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Baez S.Rublev A.
Freshness·Even
100
100

Baez S.: 15 days rest · Rublev A.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
18°COvercast
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 73%
Final
Cerundolo F.
Baez S.[8]
7-646-2
Semi-finals
Cerundolo F.
Carreno Busta P.[5]
6-36-2
Baez S.[8]
Rublev A.[1]
6-26-4
Quarter-finals
Cerundolo F.
Karatsev A.
7-56-1
Carreno Busta P.[5]
Schwartzman D.[3]
6-16-0
Rublev A.[1]
Djere L.
7-56-4
Baez S.[8]
Thiem D.
6-26-756-4
R16
Cerundolo F.
Ruud C.[1]
6-43-67-5
Karatsev A.
Gaston H.
6-26-4
Schwartzman D.[3]
Ymer E.
7-56-3
Carreno Busta P.[5]
Ramos A.
4-67-657-5
Baez S.[8]
Davidovich Fokina A.
6-26-3
Thiem D.
Bautista Agut R.[4]
7-653-66-4
Djere L.
Huesler M.
7-56-2
Rublev A.[1]
Coria F.
7-54-67-62
R32
Coria F.
Delbonis F.
0-66-46-4
Gaston H.
Basilashvili N.[6]
7-663-0
Karatsev A.
Sonego L.
6-02-66-4
Ymer E.
Altmaier D.
6-47-65
Ramos A.
Etcheverry T.
6-36-3
Carreno Busta P.[5]
Wawrinka S.
7-56-4
Baez S.[8]
Fognini F.
6-36-4
Davidovich Fokina A.
Sousa J.
6-46-2
Thiem D.
Ruusuvuori E.
3-66-17-65
Huesler M.
Rune H.[7]
6-36-4
Djere L.
Musetti L.
6-37-5
Cerundolo F.
Sousa P.
6-46-3