Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Casper RuudGstaad Quarter-final

Gstaad · ATP · Quarter-final
#45ATP
1790ELO
1762Clay ELO
$779kYTD
$2.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLWWLWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Friday, 17 July 2026 ·
clay
Court 1 · 3rd on
#13ATP
1983ELO
1973Clay ELO
$2.0MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLWWWLWW
Cerundolo J.
3-6 7-5 6-2
Ruud C.
Cerundolo J.
3762
Ruud C.
6521

Juan Manuel Cerundolo defeated Casper Ruud 3-6, 7-5, 6-2 in the quarterfinals of the Gstaad tournament on clay. Cerundolo converted 50% of his break points and won 83% of his first-serve points, while Ruud converted 33% of his break points and won 70% of his first-serve points. Cerundolo secured 4 service breaks to Ruud's 2.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-07-14GstaadQFclayJuan Manuel Cerundolo6-2 1-6 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
57%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
67%
Return points won·Even
39%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
72%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.0
6.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.3
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
59
90
Break points saved·Clear edge
81
98
Break points won·Dominant
20
78
Deciding sets·Slight edge
94
99
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
90
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Cerundolo J.25%
Ruud C.75%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Ruud C. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.4Clay Elo 1762
Surface ELO
7.6+211 Clay Elo edge
2.6Overall Elo 1790
ELO gap
7.4Overall Elo 1983
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
8.89 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.17 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
64
76

Cerundolo J.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 59 games (7d) · Ruud C.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 31 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
24°CPartly cloudy
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 58%

Draw