Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton — US Open Final

US Open · ATP · Final
Alexander Zverev
GER1
Alexander Zverev
#2ATP
2100ELO
2042Hard ELO
$9.0MYTD
$69MCAREER
29 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWLWWL
—
Sets
Sunday, 13 September 2026 ·
hard
Ben Shelton
USA8
Ben Shelton
#9ATP
1960ELO
1922Hard ELO
$3.6MYTD
$15MCAREER
23 yrs · 193 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWLWWW
Zverev A.
vs
Shelton B.

Alexander Zverev faces Ben Shelton in the US Open final on hard. Alexander Zverev holds the paper edge — ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 5–0, defending last year's round of 32. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Zverev A.79%
Shelton B.21%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Zverev A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
19 common opponents · Zverev A. 17–12 · Shelton B. 15–8
Both lost · same surface, 0 days apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Zverev A.
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Shelton B.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.5+120 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.5Hard Elo 1922
6.7Overall Elo 2100
ELO gap
3.3Overall Elo 1960
8.2Leads 3–0 on hard
H2H
1.8Trails 0–3 on hard
8.68 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
9.29 of last 10 on hard
9.06-match win streak
Win streak
9.06-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.06 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.06 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
2.0Opponent hot: 9 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

51 vs 35 matches

Statistics

This season
Zverev A.Shelton B.
1st serve in·Even
72%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
77%
77%
2nd serve points won·Even
59%
60%
Service points won·Even
72%
71%
Return points won·Slight edge
38%
31%
Break points saved·Clear edge
60%
74%
Aces / match·Clear edge
10.1
11.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.9
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (51 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Zverev A.serving98% hold

wins 80% of points on serve vs Shelton B.

Shelton B.serving92% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Zverev A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Zverev A.Shelton B.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
93
80
Break points saved·Even
99
100
Break points won·Dominant
89
47
Deciding sets·Even
99
96
Tiebreaks·Even
99
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Zverev A.Shelton B.
Freshness·Even
40
36

Zverev A.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 120 games (7d) · Shelton B.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 161 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
25°COvercast
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 84%

Head to head

5–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-09Tour FinalsRRhardAlexander Zverev6-3 7-6
2025-08-07Cincinnati MastersQFhardAlexander Zverev6-2 6-2
2025-06-09StuttgartSFgrassAlexander Zverev7-6 7-6
2025-04-14MunichFclayAlexander Zverev6-2 6-4
2024-08-12Cincinnati MastersQFhardAlexander Zverev3-6 7-6 7-5
View full head-to-head →

Draw