Frances Tiafoe vs Ben SheltonUS Open Semi-final

US Open · ATP · Semi-final
#12ATP
1918ELO
1861Hard ELO
$2.8MYTD
$19MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWWWW
1 — 3
Sets
Saturday, 12 September 2026 ·
hard
#9ATP
1960ELO
1922Hard ELO
$3.6MYTD
$15MCAREER
23 yrs · 193 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWWWW
Tiafoe F.
6-4 3-6 3-6 5-7
Shelton B.
Tiafoe F.
63351
Shelton B.
46673

Ben Shelton defeated Frances Tiafoe in the semifinals of the US Open. The match ended with a score of 4-6, 6-3, 6-3, 7-5 in favor of Shelton. Shelton hit 12 aces and committed 2 double faults, converting 38% of break points and securing 4 service breaks, compared to Tiafoe's 1 ace, 0 double faults, 50% break point conversion, and 2 service breaks.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Around the match

  • Tiafoe showed exceptional fighting spirit by mounting a comeback from two sets and a break down against Michelsen in the quarterfinals.

    Umpiry summary — not a quote

  • Just enjoyable to be part of that match

    Shelton B.ATP Tour
  • Ben Shelton. It would be nice to see an American from Atlanta win.

    Shelton B.Tennishead

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above. Lines marked “Umpiry summary” are written by Umpiry from the linked article, not quoted from it.

Momentum · Final
Tiafoe F.13/20
Shelton B.17/21

hold to 0/15to 30to 40 / deucebroken

Key context

Head to head

13
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-07-21WashingtonQFhardBen Shelton7-6 6-4
2024-08-26US OpenR32hardFrances Tiafoe4-6 7-5 6-7 6-4 6-3
2024-04-01HoustonFclayBen Shelton7-5 4-6 6-3
2023-08-28US OpenQFhardBen Shelton6-2 3-6 7-6 6-2

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
77%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
60%
Service points won·Even
67%
71%
Return points won·Even
35%
31%
Break points saved·Slight edge
68%
74%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.0
11.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.1
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (43 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
75
80
Break points saved·Even
97
100
Break points won·Even
45
47
Deciding sets·Slight edge
88
96
Tiebreaks·Even
98
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Tiafoe F.37%
Shelton B.63%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Shelton B. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.2Hard Elo 1861
Surface ELO
5.8+60 Hard Elo edge
4.5Overall Elo 1918
ELO gap
5.5Overall Elo 1960
3.6Trails 1–2 on hard
H2H
6.4Leads 2–1 on hard
9.19 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
9.19 of last 10 on hard
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.05 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.05 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
38
36

Tiafoe F.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 159 games (7d) · Shelton B.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 161 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
24°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 40%

Draw