Jakub Mensik vs Ben SheltonMontreal Quarter-final

Montreal · ATP · Quarter-final
#17ATP
1931ELO
1893Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$6.9MCAREER
20 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWLWLLW
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 12 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 3rd on
#10ATP
1960ELO
1922Hard ELO
$2.2MYTD
$14MCAREER
23 yrs · 193 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWLWLW
Mensik J.
3-6 1-6
Shelton B.
Mensik J.
310
Shelton B.
662

Ben Shelton advanced to the Montreal quarterfinals with a 6-3, 6-1 win over Jakub Mensik. Shelton converted 67% of his break points and broke Mensik's serve four times, while committing only one double fault. Shelton and Mensik each hit one ace.

Around the match

  • It's interesting to look at. I think it's cool to see the 'Next Gen' do so well. I think it's funny that it's all happening at once.

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

21
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-04-23Madrid MastersR32clayJakub Mensik6-1 6-4
2025-01-06AucklandR16hardJakub Mensik7-6 4-6 7-5
2024-03-04Indian Wells MastersR64hardBen Shelton4-6 6-3 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
62%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
78%
77%
2nd serve points won·Clear edge
48%
60%
Service points won·Even
67%
71%
Return points won·Slight edge
36%
31%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
74%
Aces / match·Even
11.4
11.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.8
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
84
79
Break points saved·Even
96
100
Break points won·Clear edge
71
47
Deciding sets·Slight edge
89
96
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
99
94

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Mensik J.47%
Shelton B.53%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.6Hard Elo 1893
Surface ELO
5.4+29 Hard Elo edge
4.6Overall Elo 1931
ELO gap
5.4Overall Elo 1960
5.2Split 1–1 on hard
H2H
4.8Split 1–1 on hard
6.66 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.37 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
65
66

Mensik J.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 87 games (7d) · Shelton B.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 76 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
23°CShowers
Wind 28 km/hHumidity 74%

Draw