Jessica Pegula vs Emma Navarro — US Open Quarter-final

US Open · WTA · Quarter-final
Jessica Pegula
USA3
Jessica Pegula
#3WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$3.5MYTD
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 9 September 2026 ·
hard
Arthur Ashe Stadium · 2nd on
Emma Navarro
USA26
Emma Navarro
#27WTA
1866ELO
1764Hard ELO
$922kYTD
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWLLWL
Pegula J.
3-6 6-4 6-3
Navarro E.
Pegula J.
3662
Navarro E.
6431

Jessica Pegula defeated Emma Navarro in the US Open quarterfinals, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3. The match saw Pegula hit 3 aces and 5 double faults, while Navarro had 5 aces and 6 double faults. Both players converted 3 service breaks, but Pegula won at a lower percentage of break points, 33% to Navarro's 50%.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Around the match

  • “It was really tough. It was physical, it's humid, I wasn't exactly serving my best and I was fighting a lot of demons out there today.”

    Pegula J.tennismajors.com ↗

  • “I think it's just a lot of self belief. I just have to tell all the negative me to shut up and just play tennis and compete and battle and think out there.”

    Pegula J.tennismajors.com ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above. Lines marked “Umpiry summary” are written by Umpiry from the linked article, not quoted from it.

Key context

Head to head

4–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-08-17CincinnatiR32hardJessica Pegula5-7 2-6
2025-09-24BeijingQFhardJessica Pegula6-7 6-2 6-1
2025-06-22Bad HomburgQFgrassJessica Pegula6-4 1-6 6-3
2024-03-18MiamiR16hardJessica Pegula7-6 6-3
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Pegula J.Navarro E.
1st serve in·Even
63%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
47%
Service points won·Even
63%
59%
Return points won·Even
46%
42%
Break points saved·Even
58%
58%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.1
3.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.5
3.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (40 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Pegula J.Navarro E.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
94
73
Break points saved·Dominant
86
48
Break points won·Even
99
97
Deciding sets·Slight edge
99
89
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
91
68

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Pegula J.79%
Navarro E.21%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Pegula J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Pegula J.
8.3
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Navarro E.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.7+294 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.3Hard Elo 1764
7.9Overall Elo 2096
ELO gap
2.1Overall Elo 1866
8.2Leads 3–0 on hard
H2H
1.8Trails 0–3 on hard
9.09 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.86 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
8.5Reached the semis here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Pegula J.Navarro E.
Freshness·Even
56
53

Pegula J.: played today · 4 matches, 89 games (7d) · Navarro E.: played today · 4 matches, 93 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
21°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 84%

Draw