Mayar Sherif vs Elizara YanevaBrescia Semi-final

Brescia · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
#127WTA
1617ELO
1594Clay ELO
30 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWLWLWL
Sets
Saturday, 20 June 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 4th on
#229WTA
1515ELO
1432Clay ELO
19 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLLLLWLW
Sherif M.
vs
Yaneva E.

Mayar Sherif faces Elizara Yaneva in the Brescia semi-final on clay. Mayar Sherif holds the paper edge — ranked #127, a roughly 160-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC
Sherif M.74%
Yaneva E.26%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Sherif M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.0+162 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Clay Elo 1432
5.2Overall Elo 1616
ELO gap
4.8Overall Elo 1515
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.76 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.65 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Sherif M.Rising
Yaneva E.Sliding

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

22 vs 28 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
78%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
58%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
45%
Service points won·Even
56%
56%
Return points won·Even
46%
47%
Break points saved·Even
54%
55%
Aces / match·Slight edge
0.9
1.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.9
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Sherif M.serving41% hold

wins 46% of points on serve vs Yaneva E.

Yaneva E.serving43% hold

wins 47% of points on serve vs Sherif M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
69
84

Sherif M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 47 games (7d) · Yaneva E.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 33 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
25°CPartly cloudy
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 58%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.