Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini — Brescia Round of 16
Astakhova D.
Darya Astakhova faces Luisina Giovannini in the Brescia round of 16 on clay. Luisina Giovannini is the paper favourite — ranked #173 — but Darya Astakhova arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 8 on clay to Luisina Giovannini's 5.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Astakhova D. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Darya Astakhova 64 games in 14 days, Luisina Giovannini 30.
- Last match: Darya Astakhova dropped the opening set before beating Noemi Basiletti 2–6 6–1 6–3.
- Last match: Luisina Giovannini dropped the opening set before beating Alessandra Mazzola 6–7 6–1 6–4.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadAstakhova D.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Giovannini L.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.