Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah vs Mia Ristic — Brescia Round of 16
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah faces Mia Ristic in the Brescia round of 16 on clay. Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah is the paper favourite — ranked #162, a roughly 30-point clay Elo advantage — but Mia Ristic rides a 3-match win streak. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 14:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Rakotomanga Rajaonah T. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah 63 games in 14 days, Mia Ristic 93.
- Form trend: Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Mia Ristic's has cooled.
- Last match: Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah handed Yuliana Lizarazo a first-set bagel in a 6–0 6–2 win.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (11 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadRakotomanga Rajaonah T.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 14 games (7d) · Ristic M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 31 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.