Xiyu Wang vs Xinyu Gao — Brescia Round of 32

Brescia · CHALLENGER · Round of 32

CHN

Xiyu Wang

#100WTA

1732ELO

1679Clay ELO

25 yrs · 182 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

LLWWLWWWWW

—

Sets

Tuesday, 16 June 2026 · 10:30

clay

CHN

Xinyu Gao

#221WTA

1540ELO

1505Clay ELO

28 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

LLLWLLLWWL

Wang X.

Gao X.

Xiyu Wang faces Xinyu Gao in the Brescia round of 32 on clay. Xiyu Wang holds the paper edge — ranked #100, a roughly 170-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC

Wang X.86%

Gao X.14%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Wang X. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Under pressure: In the tight moments, Xiyu Wang has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 60 vs 33).
Surface form: Xiyu Wang 5 of 8, Xinyu Gao 3 of 8 on clay recently — Xiyu Wang the sharper of late.
Fatigue load: Xinyu Gao carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Wang X.

7.2

Strong advantageUmpiry Score

Gao X.

5.4

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

7.2+173 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

2.8Clay Elo 1505

6.9Overall Elo 1732

ELO gap

3.1Overall Elo 1540

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

6.07 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

3.44 of last 10 on clay

0.0Lost last 2

Win streak

0.0Lost last 3

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Wang X.Cooling

Gao X.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 21 matches

Statistics

This season

Wang X.Gao X.

1st serve in·Slight edge

76%

68%

1st serve points won·Even

61%

60%

2nd serve points won·Even

53%

51%

Service points won·Even

60%

57%

Return points won·Slight edge

54%

46%

Break points saved·Clear edge

63%

51%

Aces / match·Slight edge

0.4

1.6

Double faults / match·Even

1.3

1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Wang X.serving53% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Gao X.

Gao X.serving29% hold

wins 41% of points on serve vs Wang X.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Wang X.Gao X.

Clutch Rating·Dominant

Break points saved·Dominant

Break points won·Even

Deciding sets·Dominant

Tiebreaks·

—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Wang X.Gao X.

Freshness·Even

Wang X.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d) · Gao X.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

18°CClear

Wind 6 km/hHumidity 65%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.