Matteo Arnaldi vs Taylor Fritz — Shanghai Masters Round of 64
Why
Surface+106 Hard Elo edgeSupports Fritz T.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1909Supports Fritz T.
Recent runLost last 3Against the prediction · Arnaldi M.
Head-to-headSplit 1–1 on hardSupports Fritz T.
This eventReached the R64 here last yearInformative
ELO1 914
Hard ELO1 729
Last 104–6
Age25
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $6.0M2026 $1.5M
ELO2 129
Hard ELO1 963
Last 105–5
Age28
Height196 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $32.2M2026 $2.9M
Matteo Arnaldi faces Taylor Fritz in the Shanghai Masters round of 64 on hard. Taylor Fritz holds the paper edge — ranked #12, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 110-point hard Elo advantage. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1.
Key context
- Serve & return: Taylor Fritz brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 76), Matteo Arnaldi the stronger return game (Return Rating 43).
- Freshness: Matteo Arnaldi comes in with 1 days of rest and 64 games in 14d, vs Taylor Fritz's 8 and 75.
- Last match: Matteo Arnaldi dropped just 4 games past Bernard Tomic.
Common opponents
11 shared · last 12 monthsArnaldi M. and Fritz T. faced 11 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Arnaldi M. went 5–6 (45%) against them, Fritz T. 7–6 (54%). Results against comparable opponents are close (3 : 5 better-results split).
5–645%Arnaldi M. · better vs 3Record vs common opponents7–654%Fritz T. · better vs 5
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
12–17Sets17–14
121–146Games171–159
1–1Tiebreaks3–2
3–3Deciding sets1–2
vs Alcaraz C.#3L6-7(6) 1-6Tokyo · hardL3-6 6-4 11-13Laver Cup - London · hard
vs Tiafoe F.#8W3-6 6-4Roland Garros · clayL4-6 4-6Halle · grass
vs De Minaur A.#9W4-6 7-6 6-4Rome Masters · clayL6-7 3-6Tour Finals · hard
Show 8 more ▾Show less ▴
- vs Jodar R.#13L1-6 6-4 3-6Rome Masters · clayW7-6(2) 6-4Washington · hard
vs Musetti L.#25L0-6 1-3Washington · hardL2-6 5-7 4-6Australian Open · hard
vs Tsitsipas S.#43W5-7 6-3 6-2Roland Garros · clayL4-6 5-7United Cup · hard
vs Marozsan F.#63W7-5 2-6 6-4Montreal · hardW6-2 6-4Halle · grass
vs Kopriva V.#68W2-6 6-3 6-2Monte Carlo Masters · clayW6-1 6-4 7-6Australian Open · hard- vs Landaluce M.#73L4-6 6-4 4-6Cincinnati · hardW7-5Stuttgart · grass
vs Fearnley J.#96L5-7 2-6Paris Masters · hardW6-3 6-7 6-1Indian Wells Masters · hard
vs Lajovic D.#148L0-6 6-3 4-6Madrid Masters · clayW6-3 6-4 6-3Wimbledon · grass
Head-to-head
2 meetings · level 1–111
- Fritz T.July 2025WashingtonHard6-3 6-4
- Arnaldi M.February 2024AcapulcoHard6-4 4-6 6-3
Evidence
Arnaldi M.Fritz T.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–65–5 (ahead)
Season win rate51% (19–18)65% (33–18) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO19142129 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO17291963 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 23 vs 37 matches
1st-serve points won70%80% (ahead)
Return points won39% (ahead)33%
Aces / match5.415.9 (ahead)
ClutchLast 23 vs 37 matches
Break points saved62%67% (ahead)
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Matteo Arnaldi vs Taylor Fritz — Shanghai Masters Round of 64", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-10/arnaldi-vs-fritz-shanghai-masters-r64?utm_source=cite (as of 10 October 2026).