Jacob Fearnley vs Matteo ArnaldiParis Masters Qualifying Round 1

Paris Masters · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round 1
#123ATP
1600ELO
1565Hard ELO
$342kYTD
$1.8MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWLWL
0 — 0
Sets
Monday, 27 October 2025
hard
#34ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Fearnley J.
7-5 6-2
Arnaldi M.
Fearnley J.
762
Arnaldi M.
52

Jacob Fearnley defeated Matteo Arnaldi 7-5 6-2 in the Paris Masters qualifying round 1 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Matteo Arnaldi came in ranked #34. Jacob Fearnley extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-27Paris MastersQ1hardJacob Fearnley7-5 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Fearnley J.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Arnaldi M.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Fearnley J.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Fearnley J.Arnaldi M.
3
Serve
23
28
Return
22

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
51%
Service points won·Even
61%
61%
Return points won·Even
38%
37%
Break points saved·Even
58%
62%
Aces / match·Even
5.2
5.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.3
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (70 vs 60). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
86
78
Break points saved·Even
96
97
Break points won·Clear edge
70
51
Deciding sets·Clear edge
99
86
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
86
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
36
96

Fearnley J.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 139 games (7d) · Arnaldi M.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast