Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina — Mallorca
Dimitrov G.
Grigor Dimitrov faces Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Mallorca match on grass. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is the paper favourite — ranked #25, leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 40-point grass Elo advantage — but Grigor Dimitrov arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 5 on grass to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's 3.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Davidovich Fokina A. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Grigor Dimitrov 78 games in 14 days, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 62.
- Serve & return: Grigor Dimitrov leads on Serve Rating (46), Alejandro Davidovich Fokina on Return Rating (49).
- Last match: Grigor Dimitrov dropped just 6 games past Abedallah Shelbayh.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (12 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadDimitrov G.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 59 games (7d) · Davidovich Fokina A.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–2| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-11 | Monte Carlo Masters | SF | clay | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 6-4 6-7(2) 6-3 |
| 2021-05-10 | Rome Masters | R64 | clay | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 6-4 7-6(2) |