Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego — Mallorca Round of 32
Navone M.
Mariano Navone faces Lorenzo Sonego in the Mallorca round of 32 on grass. Lorenzo Sonego holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 70-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Lorenzo Sonego grades 43 on serve, Mariano Navone 81 on return.
- Head-to-head: Lorenzo Sonego leads the head-to-head 2–0, 0–1 on grass. Last met at Miami Masters 2025.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 8). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Serve & return on grass
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Conditions
Head to head
0–2| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-19 | Miami Masters | R128 | hard | Lorenzo Sonego | 7-5 7-5 |
| 2024-07-01 | Wimbledon | R128 | grass | Lorenzo Sonego | 6-4 7-6(2) 6-4 |