Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino — Mallorca Round of 32
POR
Borges N.
Nuno Borges faces Adrian Mannarino in the Mallorca round of 32 on grass. Adrian Mannarino is the paper favourite — ranked #44, a roughly 40-point grass Elo advantage — but Nuno Borges has won both their previous meetings, though none on grass.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Nuno Borges comes in with 5 days of rest and 78 games in 14d, vs Adrian Mannarino's 3 and 161.
- Head-to-head: Nuno Borges leads the head-to-head 2–0; this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Barcelona 2026.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on grass
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadBorges N.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d) · Mannarino A.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 77 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
2–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Barcelona | R32 | clay | Nuno Borges | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2024-08-12 | Cincinnati Masters | R64 | hard | Nuno Borges | 6-4 3-6 6-1 |