Adam Walton vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina — Mallorca Round of 16
AUS
Walton A.
Adam Walton faces Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Mallorca round of 16 on grass. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is the paper favourite — ranked #25, a roughly 160-point grass Elo advantage — but Adam Walton arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 4 on grass to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's 2.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Davidovich Fokina A. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Adam Walton 67 games in 14 days, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 90.
- Under pressure: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 87 vs Adam Walton's 66).
- Surface form: Adam Walton 3 of 4, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 2 of 4 on grass recently — Adam Walton the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (41 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on grass
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadWalton A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 36 games (7d) · Davidovich Fokina A.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 62 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.