Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir KecmanovicMallorca Round of 16

Mallorca · ATP · Round of 16
#88ATP
1719ELO
1628Grass ELO
$448kYTD
$9.8MCAREER
31 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWWLLW
1 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 23 June 2026 ·
grass
#62ATP
1768ELO
1641Grass ELO
$777kYTD
$9.0MCAREER
26 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLLWLL
Sonego L.
6-2 6-7 4-6
Kecmanovic M.
Sonego L.
6641
Kecmanovic M.
2762

Miomir Kecmanovic defeated Lorenzo Sonego in the Round of 16 at the Mallorca grass tournament. Kecmanovic won the match 2-6, 7-6, 6-4. The players each hit one ace and did not commit a double fault; Kecmanovic won 50% of his first serves, while Sonego won 100%.

Key context

Head to head

53
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-04-23Madrid MastersR128clayLorenzo Sonego6-4 7-6
2024-06-17HalleR32grassLorenzo Sonego7-6 7-6
2024-03-04Indian Wells MastersR128hardLorenzo Sonego7-6 6-4
2022-02-14Rio de JaneiroR16clayMiomir Kecmanovic7-5 6-4
2022-01-17Australian OpenR32hardMiomir Kecmanovic6-4 6-7 6-2 7-5
2019-06-24AntalyaFgrassLorenzo Sonego6-7 7-6 6-1
2019-05-20GenevaQ2clayLorenzo Sonego6-4 7-6
2017-09-18Italy F30QFclayMiomir Kecmanovic6-3 4-6 7-5

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
52%
Service points won·Even
66%
65%
Return points won·Even
34%
35%
Break points saved·Even
61%
63%
Aces / match·Slight edge
6.5
5.5
Double faults / match·Even
2.0
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
50
26
Break points saved·Even
97
94
Break points won·Clear edge
21
34
Deciding sets·Dominant
58
12
Tiebreaks·Dominant
77
35

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Sonego L.44%
Kecmanovic M.56%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.4+32 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Grass Elo 1498
5.0Overall Elo 1748
ELO gap
5.0Overall Elo 1751
7.0Leads 1–0 on grass
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on grass
6.06 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.35 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
86
59

Sonego L.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d) · Kecmanovic M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 66 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
36°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 21%

Draw