Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic — Mallorca Round of 16
Sonego L.
Lorenzo Sonego faces Miomir Kecmanovic in the Mallorca round of 16 on grass. Lorenzo Sonego holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 5–2.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Lorenzo Sonego comes in with 1 days of rest and 93 games in 14d, vs Miomir Kecmanovic's 6 and 28.
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Lorenzo Sonego grades 43 on serve, Miomir Kecmanovic 36 on return.
- Head-to-head: Lorenzo Sonego leads the head-to-head 5–2, 2–0 on grass. Last met at Madrid Masters 2025.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (8 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on grass
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadSonego L.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 52 games (7d) · Kecmanovic M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
5–2| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | R128 | clay | Lorenzo Sonego | 6-4 7-6(5) |
| 2024-06-17 | Halle | R32 | grass | Lorenzo Sonego | 7-6(6) 7-6(5) |
| 2024-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | R128 | hard | Lorenzo Sonego | 7-6(1) 6-4 |
| 2022-02-14 | Rio de Janeiro | R16 | clay | Miomir Kecmanovic | 7-5 6-4 |
| 2022-01-17 | Australian Open | R32 | hard | Miomir Kecmanovic | 6-4 6-7(8) 6-2 7-5 |
| 2019-06-24 | Antalya | F | grass | Lorenzo Sonego | 6-7(5) 7-6(5) 6-1 |
| 2019-05-20 | Geneva | Q2 | clay | Lorenzo Sonego | 6-4 7-6(5) |