Miomir Kecmanovic vs Fabian Marozsan — Mallorca Quarter-final
Kecmanovic M.
Miomir Kecmanovic faces Fabian Marozsan in the Mallorca quarter-final on grass. Miomir Kecmanovic is the paper favourite — ranked #51, a roughly 90-point grass Elo advantage — but Fabian Marozsan has won 2 of their 3 previous meetings.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 17:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Kecmanovic M. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Miomir Kecmanovic 58 games in 14 days, Fabian Marozsan 80.
- Last match: Miomir Kecmanovic dropped the opening set before beating Lorenzo Sonego 2–6 7–6 6–4.
- Last match: Fabian Marozsan dropped just 5 games past Alejandro Tabilo.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadKecmanovic M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 58 games (7d) · Marozsan F.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 80 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–2| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Halle | R32 | grass | Fabian Marozsan | 6-3 3-6 6-4 |
| 2026-05-24 | Roland Garros | R128 | clay | Miomir Kecmanovic | 7.7-6.0 6-3 6-4 |
| 2025-06-16 | Halle | R32 | grass | Fabian Marozsan | 6-7(3) 6-4 6-4 |