Jan Lennard Struff vs Nuno BorgesMallorca Round of 16

Mallorca · ATP · Round of 16
#77ATP
1692ELO
1623Grass ELO
$492kYTD
$13MCAREER
36 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLWLLLLL
Sets
Tuesday, 23 June 2026 ·
grass
#53ATP
1751ELO
1616Grass ELO
$787kYTD
$5.2MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWLWWLLW
Struff J.
vs
Borges N.

Jan Lennard Struff faces Nuno Borges in the Mallorca round of 16 on grass. Nuno Borges holds the paper edge — ranked #53.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC
Struff J.44%
Borges N.56%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.1+7 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.9Grass Elo 1616
4.3Overall Elo 1692
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1751
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
6.26 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.35 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Struff J.Stable
Borges N.Rising

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

18 vs 23 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
60%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
50%
Service points won·Even
64%
65%
Return points won·Even
37%
34%
Break points saved·Even
61%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
7.6
6.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.8
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Struff J.serving92% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Borges N.

Borges N.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Struff J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
57
78
Break points saved·Even
99
98
Break points won·Dominant
21
54
Deciding sets·Dominant
59
96
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
91
72

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Serve & return on grass

Struff J.Borges N.
Serve
34
Return
41

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
93
77

Struff J.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Borges N.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.