Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse — Mallorca Round of 32
PER
Tsitsipas S.
Stefanos Tsitsipas faces Ignacio Buse in the Mallorca round of 32 on grass. Ignacio Buse holds the paper edge — ranked #35.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Tsitsipas S. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Stefanos Tsitsipas has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 91 vs Ignacio Buse's 63).
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Stefanos Tsitsipas grades 51 on serve, Ignacio Buse 26 on return.
- Fatigue load: Ignacio Buse carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadBuse I.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.