Titouan Droguet vs Jurij RodionovDublin Semi-final

Dublin · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
#112ATP
1710ELO
1598Grass ELO
$273kYTD
$1.1MCAREER
25 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLLWLWWW
Sets
Friday, 19 June 2026 ·
grass
#152ATP
1589ELO
1511Grass ELO
$194kYTD
$1.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 191 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWWLWLWWWL
Droguet T.
vs
Rodionov J.

Titouan Droguet faces Jurij Rodionov in the Dublin semi-final on grass. Titouan Droguet holds the paper edge — ranked #112, a roughly 90-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC
Droguet T.78%
Rodionov J.22%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Droguet T. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.1+87 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Grass Elo 1511
6.5Overall Elo 1710
ELO gap
3.5Overall Elo 1589
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.48 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.24 of last 10 on grass
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

32 vs 30 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
76%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
56%
53%
Service points won·Even
68%
64%
Return points won·Even
36%
39%
Break points saved·Even
63%
62%
Aces / match·Dominant
9.2
5.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.6
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Droguet T.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Rodionov J.

Rodionov J.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Droguet T.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
64
41
Break points saved·Even
88
89
Break points won·Even
17
17
Deciding sets·Dominant
93
49
Tiebreaks·Dominant
86
53

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
62
73

Droguet T.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 58 games (7d) · Rodionov J.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 42 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
18°CDrizzle
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 79%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.