Jurij Rodionov vs Quinn VandecasteeleDublin Round of 32

Dublin · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#153ATP
1589ELO
1511Grass ELO
$194kYTD
$1.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 191 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWLWWWLLLL
Sets
Tuesday, 16 June 2026 ·
grass
#468ATP
1397ELO
1382Grass ELO
23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLLWWLLL
Rodionov J.
vs
Vandecasteele Q.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC
Rodionov J.92%
Vandecasteele Q.8%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Rodionov J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.6+130 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.4Grass Elo 1382
7.4Overall Elo 1589
ELO gap
2.6Overall Elo 1397
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
1.41 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.04 of last 6 on grass
0.0
Win streak
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

30 vs 23 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
71%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
53%
48%
Service points won·Even
64%
61%
Return points won·Even
39%
41%
Break points saved·Even
62%
61%
Aces / match·Even
5.2
5.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.6
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Rodionov J.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Vandecasteele Q.

Vandecasteele Q.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Rodionov J.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
93
81

Rodionov J.: 8 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Vandecasteele Q.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
18°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 61%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.