Mees Rottgering vs Kyrian Jacquet — Dublin Round of 16
Rottgering M.
Mees Rottgering faces Kyrian Jacquet in the Dublin round of 16 on grass. Kyrian Jacquet is the paper favourite — ranked #146, a roughly 70-point grass Elo advantage — but Mees Rottgering has won their only previous meeting, though none on grass.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Jacquet K. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Mees Rottgering 20 games in 14 days, Kyrian Jacquet 56.
- Last match: Mees Rottgering dropped just 6 games past Peter Buldorini.
- Last match: Kyrian Jacquet won all two sets in tiebreaks against Gauthier Onclin.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (3 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadRottgering M.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Jacquet K.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | Rotterdam | Q1 | hard | Mees Rottgering | 0-6 6-4 6-4 |