Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato

Cattolica · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

ECU

Alvaro Guillen Meza

#266ATP

1464ELO

1445Clay ELO

23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLLLLLWWLW

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Sets

Thursday, 11 June 2026 · 10:00

clay

ITA

Marco Cecchinato

#172ATP

1555ELO

1531Clay ELO

$83kYTD

$5.2MCAREER

33 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWWLLWWLL

Alvaro Guillen Meza faces Marco Cecchinato in the Cattolica round of 16 on clay. Marco Cecchinato holds the paper edge — ranked #172, a roughly 90-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

Last match: Alvaro Guillen Meza dropped the opening set before beating Ilia Simakin 3–6 7–6 7–6.
Fatigue load: Alvaro Guillen Meza carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Surface form: Alvaro Guillen Meza 4 of 10, Marco Cecchinato 5 of 10 on clay recently — Marco Cecchinato the sharper of late.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:22 UTC

Guillen Meza A.32%

Cecchinato M.68%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Cecchinato M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Guillen Meza A.

5.6

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Cecchinato M.

7.0

Strong advantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

3.9Clay Elo 1445

Surface ELO

6.1+87 Clay Elo edge

3.9Overall Elo 1464

ELO gap

6.1Overall Elo 1555

3.0Trails 0–1 on clay

H2H

7.0Leads 1–0 on clay

3.84 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

6.06 of last 10 on clay

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

Country comfort

7.3Home country · 10/18 here

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast

22°COvercast

Wind 15 km/hHumidity 49%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form

Guillen Meza A.Cecchinato M.

65%1st serve in+4%61%

64%1st serve points won+8%72%

40%2nd serve points won+17%57%

56%Service points won+10%66%

44%Return points won+6%38%

50%Break points saved+18%68%

1.8Aces / match+2.34.1

5Double faults / match+2.12.9

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato — Cattolica Round of 16