Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Ilia Simakin — Cattolica Round of 32

Cattolica · CHALLENGER · Round of 32

ECU

Alvaro Guillen Meza

#266ATP

1464ELO

1445Clay ELO

23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LLLLLWWLWL

2 — 1

Sets

Tuesday, 9 June 2026 · 13:10

clay

CAMPO 3 · 3rd on

RUS

Ilia Simakin

#301ATP

1575ELO

1384Clay ELO

22 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LLLLLWLLWW

Alvaro Guillen Meza edged the deciding set 7-6 to get past Ilia Simakin in the Cattolica round of 32.

Key context

Set 1, game 4: Ilia Simakin broke serve.
Comeback: Alvaro Guillen Meza recovered from a set deficit to win.
Pressure points: Alvaro Guillen Meza converted 3 of 7 break points; Ilia Simakin converted 4 of 9 break points.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:21 UTC

Guillen Meza A.37%

Simakin I.63%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Simakin I. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Guillen Meza A.

5.8

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Simakin I.

6.1

Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Form & Matchup

5.8+61 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.2Clay Elo 1384

3.6Overall Elo 1464

ELO gap

6.4Overall Elo 1574

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

2.53 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

0.0Lost last 5

Win streak

0.0Lost last 4

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Guillen Meza A.

37⁷7⁷2

Simakin I.

66⁵6⁵1

Conditions

Weather

29°CClear

Wind 13 km/hHumidity 38%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form

Guillen Meza A.Simakin I.

65%1st serve in+3%62%

64%1st serve points won+8%72%

40%2nd serve points won+13%53%

56%Service points won+9%65%

44%Return points won+6%38%

50%Break points saved+19%69%

1.8Aces / match+4.86.6

5Double faults / match+2.32.7

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.