Alexander Vasilev vs Andrea Guerrieri

Cattolica · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

BUL

Alexander Vasilev

#651ATP

1467ELO

1415Clay ELO

19 yrs

Last 10

WLLWWLWWLW

—

Sets

Wednesday, 10 June 2026 · 18:00

clay

CAMPO CENTRALE · 5th on

ITA

Andrea Guerrieri

#231ATP

1526ELO

1494Clay ELO

27 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

WLWWWLWWWW

Alexander Vasilev faces Andrea Guerrieri in the Cattolica round of 16 on clay. Andrea Guerrieri holds the paper edge — ranked #231, a roughly 80-point clay Elo advantage.

Key context

Last match: Alexander Vasilev dropped just 6 games past Miguel Tobon.
Surface form: Alexander Vasilev 6 of 10, Andrea Guerrieri 8 of 10 on clay recently — Andrea Guerrieri the sharper of late.
Fatigue load: Andrea Guerrieri carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:20 UTC

Vasilev A.21%

Guerrieri A.79%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Guerrieri A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Vasilev A.

5.3

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Guerrieri A.

7.4

Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

4.0Clay Elo 1415

Surface ELO

6.0+79 Clay Elo edge

4.3Overall Elo 1467

ELO gap

5.7Overall Elo 1526

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

5.96 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

7.88 of last 10 on clay

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Country comfort

10.0Home country · 1/1 here

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

When it starts

5th on CAMPO CENTRALE · not before Not Before 18:00 · 3 matches still to finish ahead

Conditions

Weather forecast

31°COvercast

Wind 21 km/hHumidity 39%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form

Vasilev A.Guerrieri A.

59%1st serve in+2%61%

57%1st serve points won+10%67%

42%2nd serve points won+4%46%

51%Service points won+8%59%

40%Return points won+6%46%

63%Break points saved+2%65%

2.6Aces / match+0.71.9

7.4Double faults / match+2.74.7

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (7 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Alexander Vasilev vs Andrea Guerrieri — Cattolica Round of 16