Miguel Tobon vs Alexander Vasilev — Cattolica Round of 32

Cattolica · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
COLQ
Miguel Tobon
#473ATP
1352ELO
1340Clay ELO
19 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWWLWWL
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 9 June 2026 ·
clay
CAMPO 3 · 1st on
BUL
Alexander Vasilev
#651ATP
1467ELO
1415Clay ELO
19 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWLWL

Alexander Vasilev reeled off five straight games on the way to a 6-4 6-2 win over Miguel Tobon in the Cattolica round of 32.

Key context

  • Set 1, game 5: A 13-point game with four deuces went Miguel Tobon's way.
  • Set 2, game 3: Alexander Vasilev broke serve.
  • Pressure points: Miguel Tobon converted 1 of 1 break points; Alexander Vasilev converted 4 of 11 break points.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:20 UTC
Tobon M.40%
Vasilev A.60%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Vasilev A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Tobon M.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Vasilev A.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.1Clay Elo 1340
Surface ELO
5.9+75 Clay Elo edge
3.6Overall Elo 1352
ELO gap
6.4Overall Elo 1467
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.26 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.05 of last 10 on clay
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Tobon M.
420
Vasilev A.
662

Conditions

Weather
27°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 39%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form
Tobon M.Vasilev A.
56%1st serve in+3%59%
73%1st serve points won+16%57%
54%2nd serve points won+12%42%
65%Service points won+14%51%
40%Return points won40%
59%Break points saved+4%63%
5.9Aces / match+3.32.6
3.6Double faults / match+3.87.4

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 7). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw