Jesper De Jong vs Federico Bondioli — Cattolica Round of 16

Cattolica · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

NED

Jesper De Jong

#83ATP

1651ELO

1647Clay ELO

$261kYTD

$2.0MCAREER

26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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Sets

Thursday, 11 June 2026 · 10:00

clay

ITA

Federico Bondioli

#341ATP

1338ELO

1332Clay ELO

21 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

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Jesper De Jong faces Federico Bondioli in the Cattolica round of 16 on clay. Jesper De Jong holds the paper edge — ranked #83, a roughly 310-point clay Elo advantage.

Key context

Last match: Federico Bondioli edged Carlo Alberto Caniato in three tight sets (7–6 6–7 6–4).
Surface form: Jesper De Jong 8 of 10, Federico Bondioli 4 of 10 on clay recently — Jesper De Jong the sharper of late.
Fatigue load: Both played two three-setters in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:21 UTC

De Jong J.74%

Bondioli F.26%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · De Jong J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

De Jong J.

8.0

Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score

Bondioli F.

5.4

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

8.9+315 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

1.1Clay Elo 1332

8.9Overall Elo 1651

ELO gap

1.1Overall Elo 1338

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

7.78 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

4.34 of last 10 on clay

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

Country comfort

10.0Home country · 1/1 here

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast

23°COvercast

Wind 10 km/hHumidity 54%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form

De Jong J.Bondioli F.

58%1st serve in+5%63%

70%1st serve points won+3%67%

48%2nd serve points won+1%49%

60%Service points won60%

40%Return points won40%

58%Break points saved+1%57%

6.5Aces / match+3.43.1

4.1Double faults / match+0.63.5

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.