Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina — Cincinnati Round of 16

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 16
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR2
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 14 August 2023
hard
Daria Kasatkina
AUS14
Daria Kasatkina
#65WTA
1795ELO
1757Hard ELO
29 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLWWL
Sabalenka A.
6-3 6-3
Kasatkina D.
Sabalenka A.
662
Kasatkina D.
330

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Daria Kasatkina 6-3 6-3 in the Cincinnati round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 7–2, defending last year's semi-final. Aryna Sabalenka extended the head-to-head to 8–2.

Key context

Head to head

7–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-30Roland GarrosR32clayAryna Sabalenka6-0 7-5
2024-06-17BerlinR16grassAryna Sabalenka6-1 6-4
2024-01-01BrisbaneQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-1 6-4
2023-08-28US OpenR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-1 6-3
2022-08-01San JoseQFhardDaria Kasatkina4-6 7-5 6-0
2021-04-29MadridR32clayAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-3
2021-02-08Australian OpenR64hardAryna Sabalenka7-6(5) 6-3
2020-09-28Roland GarrosR64clayAryna Sabalenka7-6(6) 6-0
2019-09-30BeijingR32hardDaria Kasatkina6-4 7-6(5)
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Kasatkina D.

Kasatkina D.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Sabalenka A.Kasatkina D.
96
Serve
0
39
Return
95

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Sabalenka A.Kasatkina D.
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
70%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
60%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
41%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
54%
Return points won·Even
45%
48%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
54%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.6
1.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.9
4.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 184). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Sabalenka A.Kasatkina D.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
98
78
Break points saved·Clear edge
98
80
Break points won·Even
100
100
Deciding sets·Even
97
93
Tiebreaks·Dominant
100
47

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sabalenka A.
8.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Kasatkina D.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
10.0+444 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.0Hard Elo 1757
10.0Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1795
4.6
H2H
5.4
7.4
Surface form
5.6
Fatigue & Travel
7.1
Minutes 14d
2.9
7.0
3-set count
7.0
6.0
Prev. match
4.0
5.8
Country comfort
5.4
Context
8.5
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Sabalenka A.Kasatkina D.
Freshness·Even
86
89

Sabalenka A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Kasatkina D.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
23°CRain
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 92%

Draw

Final
Gauff C.[7]
Muchova K.
6-36-4
Semi-finals
Gauff C.[7]
Swiatek I.[1]
7-623-66-4
Muchova K.
Sabalenka A.[2]
6-746-36-2
Quarter-finals
Swiatek I.[1]
Vondrousova M.[10]
7-636-1
Muchova K.
Bouzkova M.
3-0
Gauff C.[7]
Paolini J.
6-36-2
Sabalenka A.[2]
Jabeur O.[5]
7-56-3
R16
Paolini J.
Rybakina E.[4]
4-65-2
Jabeur O.[5]
Vekic D.
5-2
Swiatek I.[1]
Zheng Q.
3-66-16-1
Gauff C.[7]
Noskova L.
6-46-0
Muchova K.
Sakkari M.[8]
6-32-66-3
Bouzkova M.
Pegula J.[3]
6-46-0
Sabalenka A.[2]
Kasatkina D.[14]
6-36-3
Vondrousova M.[10]
Stephens S.
7-56-3
R32
Vondrousova M.[10]
Potapova A.
6-46-2
Kasatkina D.[14]
Gracheva V.
6-36-1
Muchova K.
Martic P.
6-33-66-3
Zheng Q.
Williams V.
1-66-26-1
Rybakina E.[4]
Ostapenko J.
6-766-26-4
Noskova L.
Kvitova P.[9]
3-66-26-4
Gauff C.[7]
Sherif M.
6-26-2
Sakkari M.[8]
Cirstea S.
2-66-37-5
Bouzkova M.
Mertens E.
6-24-66-1
Pegula J.[3]
Trevisan M.
6-726-26-3
Jabeur O.[5]
Kalinina A.
6-36-727-62
Sabalenka A.[2]
Li A.
7-52-66-4
Swiatek I.[1]
Collins D.
6-16-0
Paolini J.
Bucsa C.
6-16-3
Stephens S.
Garcia C.[6]
4-66-46-4
Vekic D.
Azarenka V.
3-66-36-4
R64
Kvitova P.[9]
Blinkova A.
7-626-0
Paolini J.
Kostyuk M.
6-26-1
Noskova L.
Samsonova L.
2-66-36-1
Sherif M.
Wang X.
7-634-67-65
Cirstea S.
Alexandrova E.
6-06-2
Bouzkova M.
Begu I.
6-26-2
Vondrousova M.[10]
Siniakova K.
7-56-4
Gracheva V.
Wozniacki C.
6-46-4
Collins D.
Pavlyuchenkova A.
6-36-1
Zheng Q.
Sasnovich A.
6-16-4
Williams V.
Kudermetova V.[16]
6-47-5
Stephens S.
Cocciaretto E.
7-56-2
Ostapenko J.
Pliskova K.
1-66-36-4
Martic P.
Navarro E.
6-23-66-3
Muchova K.
Haddad Maia B.[12]
6-736-16-4
Mertens E.
Keys M.[15]
6-33-66-3
Trevisan M.
Pera B.
3-66-16-2
Kalinina A.
Zhu L.
6-37-5
Vekic D.
Brady J.
7-657-5
Azarenka V.
Krejcikova B.[11]
6-37-5
Kasatkina D.[14]
Stearns P.
6-26-1
Potapova A.
Naef C.
1-66-47-5
Bucsa C.
Bencic B.[13]
4-66-36-2
Li A.
Linette M.
0-67-656-2