Daria Kasatkina vs Aryna SabalenkaSan Jose Quarter-final

San Jose · WTA · Quarter-final
#63WTA
1795ELO
1757Hard ELO
29 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 1 August 2022
hard
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Kasatkina D.
4-6 7-5 6-0
Sabalenka A.
Kasatkina D.
4762
Sabalenka A.
6501

Daria Kasatkina defeated Aryna Sabalenka 4-6 7-5 6-0 in the San Jose quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 8–1. Daria Kasatkina narrowed the head-to-head to 8–2.

Key context

Head to head

18
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-30Roland GarrosR32clayAryna Sabalenka6-0 7-5
2024-06-17BerlinR16grassAryna Sabalenka6-1 6-4
2024-01-01BrisbaneQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-1 6-4
2023-08-28US OpenR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-1 6-3
2023-08-14CincinnatiR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-3
2021-04-29MadridR32clayAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-3
2021-02-08Australian OpenR64hardAryna Sabalenka7-6(5) 6-3
2020-09-28Roland GarrosR64clayAryna Sabalenka7-6(6) 6-0
2019-09-30BeijingR32hardDaria Kasatkina6-4 7-6(5)

Serve vs return

This season
Kasatkina D.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Sabalenka A.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Kasatkina D.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Kasatkina D.Sabalenka A.
0
Serve
96
95
Return
39

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
70%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
60%
70%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
41%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
54%
63%
Return points won·Even
48%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.4
4.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.7
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
78
98
Break points saved·Clear edge
80
98
Break points won·Even
100
100
Deciding sets·Even
93
97
Tiebreaks·Dominant
47
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 49 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
0.0Hard Elo 1757
Surface ELO
10.0+444 Hard Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1795
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 2220
4.6
H2H
5.4
4.7
Surface form
4.6
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
8.5
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
6.0
Prev. match
6.0
Surface transition
7.0
Context
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
92
90

Kasatkina D.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Sabalenka A.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast