

Daria Kasatkina defeated Aryna Sabalenka 4-6 7-5 6-0 in the San Jose quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 8–1. Daria Kasatkina narrowed the head-to-head to 8–2.
| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Roland Garros | R32 | clay | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-0 7-5 |
| 2024-06-17 | Berlin | R16 | grass | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2024-01-01 | Brisbane | QF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2023-08-28 | US Open | R16 | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-1 6-3 |
| 2023-08-14 | Cincinnati | R16 | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2021-04-29 | Madrid | R32 | clay | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2021-02-08 | Australian Open | R64 | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 7-6(5) 6-3 |
| 2020-09-28 | Roland Garros | R64 | clay | Aryna Sabalenka | 7-6(6) 6-0 |
| 2019-09-30 | Beijing | R32 | hard | Daria Kasatkina | 6-4 7-6(5) |
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Kasatkina D.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Sabalenka A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About