Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria KasatkinaBerlin Round of 16

Berlin · WTA · Round of 16
#1WTA
2220ELO
1987Grass ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 17 June 2024
grass
#65WTA
1795ELO
1666Grass ELO
29 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLWWL
Sabalenka A.
6-1 6-4
Kasatkina D.
Sabalenka A.
662
Kasatkina D.
140

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Daria Kasatkina 6-1 6-4 in the Berlin round of 16 on grass. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 7–2, defending last year's round of 16. Aryna Sabalenka extended the head-to-head to 8–2.

Key context

Head to head

72
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-30Roland GarrosR32clayAryna Sabalenka6-0 7-5
2024-01-01BrisbaneQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-1 6-4
2023-08-28US OpenR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-1 6-3
2023-08-14CincinnatiR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-3
2022-08-01San JoseQFhardDaria Kasatkina4-6 7-5 6-0
2021-04-29MadridR32clayAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-3
2021-02-08Australian OpenR64hardAryna Sabalenka7-6(5) 6-3
2020-09-28Roland GarrosR64clayAryna Sabalenka7-6(6) 6-0
2019-09-30BeijingR32hardDaria Kasatkina6-4 7-6(5)

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving82% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Kasatkina D.

Kasatkina D.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
60%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
42%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
54%
Return points won·Even
45%
48%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
53%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.3
1.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.5
5.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (165 vs 120). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
98
78
Break points saved·Clear edge
98
80
Break points won·Even
100
100
Deciding sets·Even
97
93
Tiebreaks·Dominant
100
47

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
8.6+321 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.4Grass Elo 1666
10.0Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1795
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.5
Surface form
6.8
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3.0
Surface transition
3.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
88
90

Sabalenka A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Kasatkina D.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
20°CDrizzle
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 63%