Elise Mertens vs Madison KeysCincinnati Round of 64

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 64
#27WTA
1894ELO
1847Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$19MCAREER
30 yrs · 179 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 14 August 2023
hard
#22WTA
1987ELO
1920Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$24MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWL
Mertens E.
6-3 3-6 6-3
Keys M.
Mertens E.
6362
Keys M.
3631

Elise Mertens defeated Madison Keys 6-3 3-6 6-3 in the Cincinnati round of 64 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Madison Keys came in ranked #22, leading the head-to-head 4–1, defending last year's semi-final. Elise Mertens narrowed the head-to-head to 4–2.

Key context

  • Match story: Elise Mertens closed it out in three sets, 6–3 3–6 6–3.

Head to head

14
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-03-05Indian WellsR32hardMadison Keys6-2 6-7(8) 6-4
2024-08-26US OpenR32hardElise Mertens6-7(5) 7-5 6-4
2021-06-28WimbledonR32grassMadison Keys7-5 6-3
2019-01-14Australian OpenR32hardMadison Keys6-3 6-2
2017-08-28US OpenR128hardMadison Keys6-3 7-6(6)

Serve vs return

This season
Mertens E.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Keys M.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Mertens E.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Mertens E.Keys M.
51
Serve
36
54
Return
29

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
56%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
47%
Service points won·Even
58%
60%
Return points won·Even
45%
44%
Break points saved·Even
56%
60%
Aces / match·Even
4.0
4.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.9
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (172 vs 153). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
80
94
Break points saved·Slight edge
90
96
Break points won·Slight edge
96
90
Deciding sets·Clear edge
76
97
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
75
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
4.4Hard Elo 1847
Surface ELO
5.6+73 Hard Elo edge
4.4Overall Elo 1894
ELO gap
5.6Overall Elo 1987
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.1
Surface form
5.1
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
8.0
Minutes 14d
6.6
8.0
Prev. match
5.1
Country comfort
7.8
Context
6.0
Defending pts
8.5

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
78
82

Mertens E.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d) · Keys M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
23°CRain
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 92%

Draw