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Casper Ruud vs Carlos Alcaraz — Rolex Paris Masters - Paris Semi-final

Rolex Paris Masters - ParisSemi-finalHardSat 7 Nov · 17:00COURT CENTRAL · After 1 match
VSStrong favourite · Alcaraz C.
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Alcaraz C.
13%87%

Clear edge for Alcaraz C. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 8 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Ruud C.4.8/10
Heavy underdog
Alcaraz C.6.6/10
Marginal edge
Why
Surface+200 Hard Elo edgeSupports Alcaraz C.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 2162Supports Alcaraz C.
Recent run8-match win streakSupports Alcaraz C.
Head-to-headLeads 5–1 on hardSupports Alcaraz C.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Alcaraz C.
ELO2 121
Hard ELO1 896
Last 108–2
Age27
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $29.4M2026 $2.2M
ELO2 438
Hard ELO2 228
Last 109–1
Age23
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $65.0M2026 $4.4M

Casper Ruud faces Carlos Alcaraz in the Rolex Paris Masters - Paris semi-final on hard. Carlos Alcaraz holds the paper edge — ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 6–1, a roughly 200-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

15 shared · last 12 months
All 15 opponents →

Ruud C. and Alcaraz C. faced 15 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Ruud C. went 14–6 (70%) against them, Alcaraz C. 17–3 (85%). Alcaraz C. came out better against 3 of 14 comparable opponents, Ruud C. against 0 — though 1 of those edges carries caveats (retirement).

14–670%Ruud C. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents17–385%Alcaraz C. · better vs 3
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
31–18Sets42–9
257–204Games299–204
0–2Tiebreaks6–3
3–1Deciding sets1–1
Show 12 more ▾Show less ▴

Head-to-head

7 meetings · Alcaraz C. leads 6–1
Full H2H →
16

Hard: Alcaraz C. leads 5–1 · Clay: Alcaraz C. leads 1–0

Evidence

Ruud C.Alcaraz C.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss8–29–1 (ahead)
Season win rate63% (34–20)87% (41–6) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO21212438 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO18962228 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 53 vs 45 matches
1st-serve points won72%73% (ahead)
Return points won36%42% (ahead)
Aces / match6.4 (ahead)4.6
ClutchLast 53 vs 45 matches
Break points saved68% (ahead)66%

When it starts

COURT CENTRAL · After 1 match · Not before 5:00 PM

Draw

Odds

Conditions

COURT CENTRAL · 17:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast11°C · Overcast
Wind6 km/h
Humidity67%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Ruud C.Alcaraz C.
1Days since last match1
4Matches · 7 days4
77 — fresherGames · 7 days96
6 — fresherMatches · 14 days7
134 — fresherGames · 14 days162
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Casper Ruud vs Carlos Alcaraz — Rolex Paris Masters - Paris Semi-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-07/alcaraz-vs-ruud-rolex-paris-masters-paris-sf?utm_source=cite (as of 7 November 2026).