Casper Ruud vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo

UMPIRY

Rolex Paris Masters - ParisR64HardMon 2 Nov · 14:00

Casper RuudATP #25 · NOR67%

VSClear favourite · Ruud C.

Juan Manuel CerundoloATP #54 · ARG33%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Ruud C.

67%33%

Clear edge for Ruud C. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Ruud C.6.9/10

Slight advantage

Cerundolo J.4.2/10

Heavy underdog

Why

Surface+231 Hard Elo edgeSupports Ruud C.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1983Supports Ruud C.

Recent run2-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Cerundolo J.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Ruud C.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO2 084

Hard ELO1 857

Last 105–5

Age27

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $29.4M2026 $2.2M

ELO1 930

Hard ELO1 656

Last 105–5

Age24

Height183 cm

PlaysLeft

EarningsCareer $2.7M2026 $1.0M

Casper Ruud faces Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the Rolex Paris Masters - Paris round of 64 on hard. Casper Ruud is the paper favourite — ranked #25, a roughly 230-point hard Elo advantage — but Juan Manuel Cerundolo has won 2 of their 3 previous meetings. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Casper Ruud 57 games in 14 days, Juan Manuel Cerundolo 120.
Last match: Juan Manuel Cerundolo edged Miomir Kecmanovic in three tight sets (6–4 6–7 7–6).
Head-to-head: Juan Manuel Cerundolo leads the head-to-head 2–1, 1–0 on hard. Last met at Montreal 2026.

Common opponents

9 shared · last 12 months

All 9 opponents →

Ruud C. and Cerundolo J. faced 9 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Ruud C. went 7–4 (64%) against them, Cerundolo J. 4–7 (36%). Ruud C. came out better against 4 of 9 comparable opponents, Cerundolo J. against 1 — though 1 of those edges carries caveats (retirement).

7–464%Ruud C. · better vs 4Record vs common opponents4–736%Cerundolo J. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

14–8Sets11–18

118–88Games124–145

1–2Tiebreaks0–1

1–0Deciding sets2–2

vs Sinner J.#1L4-6 4-6Rome Masters · clayW3-6 2-6 7-5 6-1 6-1Roland Garros · clay
vs Alcaraz C.#3L1-6 6-7Indian Wells Masters · hardL3-6 3-6Shanghai Masters · hard
vs Auger-Aliassime F.#7W5-2Shanghai Masters · hardL5-7 1-6Cincinnati · hard

Show 6 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Davidovich Fokina A.#15W6-3 6-1Madrid Masters · clayL4-6 4-6 6-7Wimbledon · grass
vs Darderi L.#23W6-1 6-1Rome Masters · clayL1-6 3-6Madrid Masters · clay
vs Vacherot V.#31W3-6 6-3 6-4Indian Wells Masters · hardL7-5 2-6 1-6Monte Carlo Masters · clay
vs Svajda Z.#76W6-1 6-3Rome Masters · clayW6-4 6-3Basel · hard
vs Medjedovic H.#78W6-3 6-2 6-4Roland Garros · clayW6-4 6-2Montreal · hard
vs Yunchaokete B.#92W6-1 7-6(2)Shanghai Masters · hardL2-6 7-5 4-6Beijing · hard

Head-to-head

3 meetings · Cerundolo J. leads 2–1

Full H2H →

Hard: Ruud C. leads 1–0 · Clay: Cerundolo J. leads 2–0

Ruud C.August 2026MontrealHard6-1 6-2
Cerundolo J.July 2026GstaadClay3-6 7-5 6-2
Cerundolo J.July 2025GstaadClay6-2 1-6 6-3

Evidence

Ruud C.Cerundolo J.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–55–5

Season win rate60% (30–20)59% (38–26)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO20841930

Hard-court ELO18571656

Serve vs returnLast 49 vs 59 matches

1st-serve points won72%73%

Return points won36%37%

Aces / match6.35.8

ClutchLast 49 vs 59 matches

Break points saved67%61%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

14:00 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast11°C · Rain

Wind9 km/h

Humidity76%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Ruud C.Cerundolo J.

4Days since last match1

2Matches · 7 days3

57Games · 7 days80

2Matches · 14 days5

57Games · 14 days120

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Casper Ruud vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo — Rolex Paris Masters - Paris Round of 64", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-02/cerundolo-vs-ruud-rolex-paris-masters-paris-r64?utm_source=cite (as of 2 November 2026).