Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper RuudTokyo Semi-final

Tokyo · ATP · Semi-final
#3ATP
2162ELO
2088Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$65MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 24 September 2025
hard
#13ATP
1983ELO
1889Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWWL
Alcaraz C.
3-6 6-3 6-4
Ruud C.
Alcaraz C.
3662
Ruud C.
6341

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Casper Ruud 3-6 6-3 6-4 in the Tokyo semi-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Carlos Alcaraz came in ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 5–1. Carlos Alcaraz extended the head-to-head to 6–1.

Key context

Head to head

51
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-04Indian Wells MastersR16hardCarlos Alcaraz6-1 7-6(2)
2024-11-11Tour FinalsRRhardCasper Ruud6-1 7-5
2023-09-27BeijingQFhardCarlos Alcaraz6-4 6-2
2022-08-29US OpenFhardCarlos Alcaraz6-4 2-6 7-6(1) 6-3
2022-03-21Miami MastersFhardCarlos Alcaraz7-5 6-4
2021-04-05MarbellaQFclayCarlos Alcaraz6-2 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Alcaraz C.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Ruud C.

Ruud C.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Alcaraz C.

Serve advantage — Alcaraz C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Alcaraz C.Ruud C.
74
Serve
59
95
Return
31

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
57%
54%
Service points won·Even
68%
66%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
37%
Break points saved·Even
66%
67%
Aces / match·Even
5.5
6.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.6
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (103 vs 70). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
98
91
Break points saved·Even
100
99
Break points won·Clear edge
99
75
Deciding sets·Even
100
99
Tiebreaks·Even
100
97

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
8.1
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
9.2+200 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.8Hard Elo 1889
9.2Overall Elo 2162
ELO gap
0.8Overall Elo 1983
4.6
H2H
5.4
7.4
Surface form
5.4
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.6
Minutes 14d
9.1
9.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
98

Ruud C.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°CPartly cloudy
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 49%