Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider — Ningbo Open - Ningbo Semi-final
Why
Surface+277 Hard Elo edgeSupports Rybakina E.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 2122Supports Rybakina E.
Recent run3-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Shnaider D.
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Rybakina E.
Opponent formOpponent hot: 7 of last 10Against the prediction · Shnaider D.
ELO2 263
Hard ELO2 174
Last 109–1
Age27
Height184 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $35.4M2026 $10.9M
ELO2 055
Hard ELO1 891
Last 107–3
Age22
Height170 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $7.2M2026 $3.0M
Elena Rybakina faces Diana Shnaider in the Ningbo Open - Ningbo semi-final on hard. Elena Rybakina is the paper favourite — ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 280-point hard Elo advantage — but Diana Shnaider rides a 3-match win streak.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Elena Rybakina 28 games in 14 days, Diana Shnaider 146.
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Elena Rybakina grades 100 on serve, Diana Shnaider 54 on return.
- Head-to-head: Elena Rybakina leads the head-to-head 2–0, 1–0 on hard. Last met at Cincinnati 2026.
Common opponents
20 shared · last 12 monthsRybakina E. and Shnaider D. faced 20 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Rybakina E. went 25–9 (74%) against them, Shnaider D. 18–9 (67%). Results against comparable opponents are close (8 : 4 better-results split).
25–974%Rybakina E. · better vs 8Record vs common opponents18–967%Shnaider D. · better vs 4
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
54–25Sets40–22
430–327Games319–265
5–3Tiebreaks5–1
8–4Deciding sets4–4
vs Sabalenka A.#2L4-6 3-6Miami · hardW3-6 7-5 6-0Roland Garros · clay
vs Andreeva M.#3W7-5 6-1Stuttgart · clayL3-6 2-6Adelaide · hard
vs Pegula J.#4W2-6 6-3 6-4Miami · hardL6-3 3-6 2-6Charleston · clay
Show 17 more ▾Show less ▴
vs Svitolina E.#6W7-5 6-4Indian Wells · hardL6-7 3-6Australian Open · hard
vs Swiatek I.#9L2-6 3-6Toronto · hardL2-6 1-6Toronto · hard
vs Osaka N.#19W4-6 7-6(5) 6-4Toronto · hardL1-6 2-6Rome · clay
vs Eala A.#20L5-7 4-6Berlin · grassW7-5 6-4Ningbo Open - Ningbo · hard- vs Potapova A.#27L6-7(8) 4-6Madrid · clayW6-1 6-2Washington · hard
vs Fernandez L.#30W6-7 6-4 7-6Stuttgart · clayW6-3 6-0Charleston · clay- vs Alexandrova E.#33W6-4 6-4WTA Finals · hardL6-3 4-6 3-6Beijing · hard
vs Gibson T.#42W6-2 6-2Miami · hardW5-7 6-1 6-1Rome · clay- vs Samsonova L.#43W6-4 4-6 6-4Toronto · hardW6-3 6-4Washington · hard
vs Pliskova K.#48W6-0 6-2Rome · clayW6-1 7-6(4)US Open · hard
vs Boulter K.#58L5-7 6-2 4-6London · grassW6-3 6-1Wuhan · hard
vs Putintseva Y.#66W6-3 6-3Miami · hardW6-2 6-2Wuhan · hard
vs Maria T.#69W7-5 6-0London · grassW6-2 7-5Cincinnati · hard- vs Valentova T.#88W6-2 6-3Australian Open · hardW7-6 7-6Miami · hard
- vs Townsend T.#89W6-3 6-4Cincinnati · hardL2-6 7-6(3) 3-6US Open · hard
vs Bouzas Maneiro J.#96W6-2 6-4US Open · hardW3-6 7-5 6-1Madrid · clay- vs Muchova K.#7Hard to compareW7-5 6-1Stuttgart · clayW7-5 6-3Wuhan · hard
Head-to-head
2 meetings · Rybakina E. leads 2–020
Hard: Rybakina E. leads 1–0 · Clay: Rybakina E. leads 1–0
- Rybakina E.August 2026CincinnatiHard4-6 4-6
- Rybakina E.April 2026StuttgartClay6-3 6-4
Evidence
Rybakina E.Shnaider D.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss9–1 (ahead)7–3
Season win rate78% (51–14) (ahead)63% (35–21)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2263 (ahead)2055
Hard-court ELO2174 (ahead)1891
Serve vs returnLast 65 vs 56 matches
1st-serve points won74% (ahead)64%
Return points won43%45% (ahead)
Aces / match6.5 (ahead)1.4
ClutchLast 65 vs 56 matches
Break points saved64% (ahead)57%
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider — Ningbo Open - Ningbo Semi-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-24/rybakina-vs-shnaider-ningbo-open-ningbo-sf?utm_source=cite (as of 24 October 2026).