Jacob Fearnley vs Adam Walton — Newport Final
AUS
Fearnley J.
Jacob Fearnley faces Adam Walton in the Newport final on grass. Adam Walton holds the paper edge — ranked #85, a roughly 20-point grass Elo advantage. Recent grass form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 01:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Walton A. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Jacob Fearnley comes in with 1 days of rest and 149 games in 14d, vs Adam Walton's 1 and 105.
- Serve & return: Adam Walton brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 29), Jacob Fearnley the stronger return game (Return Rating 21).
- Last match: Jacob Fearnley dropped the opening set before beating Alexis Galarneau 6–7 6–3 6–4.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 41). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadFearnley J.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 72 games (7d) · Walton A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 64 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.